I was ready to come on here and defend the running backs in the NFL before the season started. I was gathering data and what-not, so I didn't get it out super quick. Thankfully so.
For anyone not following, the RB market has been non-existent for the most part. Often times RBs are drafted, the great ones are given long-term contracts, and the good ones are given a franchise tag, which then gets altered into a slightly better one-year deal. This can come out to be a nice paycheck, but it's only for the one season. The running backs this last summer were in talks of trying to fix and figure out why the market is so poor to them. We're only five games into the season and it's being made very clear why.
Let's start with Saquon Barkley. He was looking for a long-term contract with the New York Giants. They couldn't come to an agreement on one. He has planned to sit out until the Giants came to him with a slightly better than originally offered one-year deal. He should've just held out like originally planned because he is hurting his chances with a good long-term contract. His seemingly consistent injury history (which has now affected his games played in all but two season Saquon Barkley Injury History & Updates (draftsharks.com)) has come back to mess things up for him. He's only played in two games this year out of the give and the Giants are on the face track to nowhere sitting at 1-4. Now, he has a legitimate argument to at least get a decent contract considering the fact that the NY Giants QB, Daniel Jones, has been awful without him in the games (passer rating 76.5, 16 TDs and 20 INTs in 22 games) Daniel Jones Stats Without Saquon Barkley | StatMuse as compared to with him (passer rating 90.4, 43 TDs and 20 INTs in 37 games) Daniel Jones Stats with Saquon Barkley | StatMuse. Jones just isn't a good QB, but that's a subject for another day. Fact is, Barkley makes the Giants better. He just can't stay healthy to keep them that way. Daniel Jones Stats With Saquon Barkley | StatMuse. Jones just isn't a good QB, but that's a subject for another day. Fact is, Barkley makes the Giants better. He just can't stay healthy to keep them that way. Daniel Jones Stats With Saquon Barkley | StatMuse. Jones just isn't a good QB, but that's a subject for another day. Fact is, Barkley makes the Giants better. He just can't stay healthy to keep them that way. Saquon Barkley Injury History & Updates (draftsharks.com)) has come back to mess things up for him. He's only played in two games this year out of the give and the Giants are on the face track to nowhere sitting at 1-4. Now, he has a legitimate argument to at least get a decent contract considering the fact that the NY Giants QB, Daniel Jones, has been awful without him in the games (passer rating 76.5, 16 TDs and 20 INTs in 22 games) Daniel Jones Stats Without Saquon Barkley | StatMuse as compared to with him (passer rating 90.4, 43 TDs and 20 INTs in 37 games)Daniel Jones Stats With Saquon Barkley | StatMuse. Jones just isn't a good QB, but that's a subject for another day. Fact is, Barkley makes the Giants better. He just can't stay healthy to keep them that way.
He's not the only one essentially messing up the RB market. Josh Jacobs has been next to awful this year for the Las Vegas Raiders. He was recently given the long-term contract he was looking for and it's showing everyone why you shouldn't pay running backs. He came into the league looking good having notched over 1,000 yards in three of his first four seasons and one of those he managed to get over 1,600, which is pretty damn impressive. Josh Jacobs Career Stats - NFL - ESPN Those previously mentioned years he also averaged over 4 yards a carry except for 2020. Now that he's gotten his long term 5-year contract he's currently only averaging 2.9 yards a carry and hasn't had a game over 70 rushing yards Josh Jacobs 2023 Stats per Game - NFL - ESPN. How do you defend that?
It makes sense why NFL teams are only willing to franchise tag until their numbers drop off and then just re-draft a young player. You don't even have to draft RBs high to get good value out of them! Exaple: Tony Pollard, drafted 2019 as the 128th overall pick as a back-up averaged over 5 yards a carry in 3 of his first four sesasons and when he was slowly transitioned to the lead back for the Cowboys got over 1,000 yards even after sharing snaps with Ezekiel Elliot, the Cowboys former RB1. This is with having less than 50% of the touches of all their Rbs. Dallas Cowboys 2022 Snap Counts | Pro-Football-Reference.com Dallas gave Pollard a nice little one-year deal and went about their business of letting Elliot go.
These are just Runnings Backs that were looking for or got a long-term contract this past year. Here's two more examples from recent history:
Le'Veon Bell - 2013 drafted by the Steelers, first 4 years (entry level contract) averaged over 1,000 yards a season, tagged in 2017 1,291 yards, held out in 2018, signed with the Jets in 2019 and was released in 2020 totaling less than 900 yards. He jumped around for the next three years until he was no longer able to get a job. Le'Veon Bell Career Stats - NFL - ESPN
Shaun Edward Alexander - 2000 drafted by the Seattle Seahawks, first 5 seasons (entry level contract) averaged 1,187 yards a season, tagged 2005 11880 yards, 2006 Given an 8-year contract, only played for Seattle for two full years and averaged 806 yards before he was sent to Washington in 2008 and had only 24 yeards in 4 games. Shaun Alexander Career Stats - NFL - ESPN
If you're lucky your teams with draft someone who is an all-time great running back, he'll get the long-term contract and it'll be worth it, like Derrick Henry. Otherwise, it's been shown and proven over the last few years, just draft a non-first roung running back and profit. You might get lucky and end up with RBs like Terrell Davis (196th overall in 1995) who was a 3x Pro Bowler who in seven years had 7,607 rushing yards and 65 total touchdowns.
Here's a few more names of decent to good running backs in the past to makes sure my point is getting across:
James Conner (41st overall in 2017) 639 avg. yards per season and this was with being a back-up to Bell for his first season.
Kareem Hunt (86th overall in 2017) 865 avg. yards in seasons he played more than 10 games in. Injuries took their toll but has averaged 4.5 career for his entire career even after his abysmal last two years in Cleveland.
The fact that injuries also play a huge role in all this with a position that is hit so much doesn't help their cases at all.
What it all comes down to is, kids, don't strive to be a running back. Try to play wide receiver and if that's doesn't work out you can still earn generational money as a running back if you make it that far. Good luck!
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