There are a lot of ways to skin a cat, and for the longest time that was true with NFL teams getting to and winning a Superbowl. Some, lucked up, others drafted outstanding defenses, and few ended up picking up the Quarterback that could do anything. That last one became such a sought-after direction that it's all most of us talk about. Can we draft the magic QB that changes the fortunes of our team?
From where I'm standing the NFL has laid out the map to winning, and winning consistently. The answer is not to have a good team and then draft a young, cheap QB to finish the puzzle. The answer has been the coaches that you put around him. The best example of this are the QBs that have worked with Kyle Shanahan, the current 49ers HC.
The Shanahan’s seems to radiate QB excellence everywhere they go, but we’ll get to that later. It also goes without saying that the QBs have to have a good skill set to actually perform their job. No matter who they are, no one is a miracle-worker. In 2012 Kyle takes the then “Redskins” to take the NFC East title with QB Robert Griffin III (Drafted 2nd overall 2012). This also happened to be there year RG3 had his highest QBR (68.0). Both Shanahan’s were fired from the coaching staff the next year. Griffin’s numbers after that (and after his injury during the 2012 playoffs) were never the same. https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/14875/robert-griffin-iii
2015 he became the Offensive Coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons. It only took a year for him to get Matt Ryan looking better than he ever did before or after with his highest career QBR of 79.6 and being a part of the team that went to the Superbowl.
He leaves to be the Head coach of the San Francisco 49ers. As I mentioned before, you at least need a QB that can play the position well enough already. Starting out 0-9 with 8 of those games being Quarterbacked by Brian Hoyer is now ideal. Oct. 30th, they acquire Jimmy Garoppolo (drafter 62nd overall 2014) and end the season on a five-game winning streak and wining six out of the last seven games of that season. Outside of injuries that slowed them down in 2018 and 2020, the 49ers have gone 13-3 in 2019, 10-7 in 2021, and 13-4 in 2022 (where Garoppolo missed several games and the 49ers found their now QB Purdy) To my point from earlier, Shanahan has already gotten Purdy (262nd overall 2022) to a higher QBR in the nine games he played in 2022 than 7 of Garoppolo’s previous 9 seasons in the league. One of those was 6 games under the patriots in 2016 and the other was his 6 games under Shanahan in 2017. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sfo/index.htm, https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/16760/jimmy-garoppolo, https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/4361741/brock-purdy.
Shanahan is a great coach obviously, but we’re not talking about just one coach and his accolades. There are several other NFL teams and their situations that have used this road map to achieve similar success for their Quarterbacks:
1. Matt Schaub (drafted 90th overall 2004) in his years with the Texans who were under Gary Kubiak (studied under Mike Shanahan). Now, this team didn’t do anything crazy, but they had a QB in Matt Schaub who had no right being a starting QB, but the coaches around him and the system in place made him appear more than he was.
2. Jalen Hurts, (drafter 53rd overall 2020) who in his second year led his team to a Superbowl under Head coach (former Offensive Coordinator Nick Sirianni). Siriani helped the Indianapolis Colts to the playoffs in two of his three season there with a different QB each year.
3. CJ. Stroud (drafted 2nd overall 2023) who is already starting off red-hot in his first season in the NFL.
4. Russell Wilson (drafted 75th overall 2012) and the Seattle Seahawks. Started with and was taught by Pete Carroll and his staff who came from having an incredible tenure at USC.
5. Geno Smith (drafted 39th overall 2013) who has resurrected his career under Pete Carroll and the Seattle Seahawks.
6. Tom Brady (drafted 199th overall 2000) who is clearly the most famous of all these players under these circumstances. 9 Superbowl appearance and 6 Superbowl wins under Bill Belichick who many consider to be the greatest coach in NFL history.
Of course, it’s not easy to find a QB coach or an offensive coordinator who can truly unlock the potential of these QBs, but these are just some examples of why it doesn’t have to matter where or when a QB is drafted.
Some notable head coaches who have shown this time and time again and some who have even done it across multiple teams would be some of the best (obviously): We’re talking about coaches like Mike and Kyle Shanahan, Andy Reid, Pete Carroll, and Bill Belichick. I’m sure there are other now and past who I’m leaving out, but this is enough to make my point.
If that’s not enough here are a few coaches to think about who have done the opposite: taken great (or even just good) talent and squandered it:
Adam Gase who was the OC during the Broncos record breaking season in 2013 was also the coach who couldn’t make things work for Ryan Tannehill in Miami. Tannehill is a great example of a good quarterback with the wrong people around him. He went to Tennessee where his career has been looking a lot better and even won “Comeback Player of the Year” in 2019. That tells me it’s not Tannehill that was an awful QB, but just an awful coaching staff put around him. It’s easy for Gase to help break records when your QB is one of the best to ever do it (Peyton Manning).
Bill O’Brien who was the Head coach of the Houston Texans from 2014 until he was fired four games into the 2020 season. Not only did he have a three-time Defensive Player of the Year in J.J. Watt, but the Texans also drafted Deshaun Watson in 2017. Watson is one of the many examples of a QB who can thrive regardless of their team’s situation. After going to the playoffs in each of the 2018 and 2019 seasons O’Brien decided to trade away players for what looked like next to nothing in return. This led to a bad start (0-4) and his firing in 2020. He left nothing to work with around Watson and the Texans still haven’t fully recovered form his idiocy.
All in all, you’re more likely to see your teams improve when Ownership decides to make good hiring choices rather than if you’re able to luck up on transcendent Quarterback talent.
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